/reports/wave7/plan.md · raw

Wave 7 plan

2026-10-14, Wave 7 planner, then the adversarial critic pass (section "Critic" at the end). Built from the three lens tables in reports/wave7/ (lens-clusters.tsv, lens-triage.tsv, lens-unknown.tsv), reports/strategy/directions.md and the attempts ledger. Paths are relative to [local working file]

After the critic, in short

Neither claim kills a pick. Both are corrected below, and each one adds a specific stage-1 check. - The class owner is mxdys. Sk1Machines.v was committed by ccz181078, which is mxdys's GitHub handle (see reports/discord-drafts.md). So the #bb6 question at the end is now recommended, not optional. Stage 1 does not wait on it. - Expected yield is about 2.3 lines. About half the time the wave ends with no kill, because the three main picks are in one class.

Why this wave is different from Wave 6

Wave 6 picked single machines in Unknown and chaotic classes. It killed none of its 8 picks, and most of them turned out to be cryptid-like within a day.

Wave 7 changes three things.

The risk is shared, because the main picks are one class. K42, in this same class, turned out to be a cryptid family today. So the wave has a class kill switch: if two of W7-1, W7-2 and W7-4 end stage 1 on the cryptid stop, the third and W7-5 stop after their own stage 1, and we write a short class note instead of proofs.

Class policy (FYI). - targeting.md (10-09) listed Skelet 1-like Class 1 as "mined by others, avoid". - Today's directions.md excludes only K42 (our claim), and the K42 study was approved. This plan treats the rest of the class as open. - The critic adds one fact: the miner is mxdys himself (ccz181078, who also merges our PRs). His file proved TM17 (nonhalting) and four halters, TM91, TM94, TM104 and TM105, from a numbered TM1..TM105 list that very likely contains every one of our Skelet picks. - Send the #bb6 question at the end before any pick reaches stage 2.

Picks

All five are free: - no claims.tsv line, and no machines/ folder; - not Astra's class, and not in Astra's current claims (147/493/169/109/141/551/389/544/572); - not dyuan01's list, not in an open PR, no sheet "Done By".

Astra's block-solver screen lists them only as excluded (mined or taken class). The only table-level ledger rows are the planner's and critic's probes from today.

Label Lines (rep first) Class Method Odds (critic) Stop rule
W7-1 75, 179, 265, 597 Skelet 1-like Class 1 A countdown over (10^x 01^y) pairs with re-pairing, our #3 route. Prove line 75, then a #24-style delta for each other start. 0.25 (planner 0.30; all 4 if one) Stage 1 (2 h, Python): stop if the far-end death or the right-end pair birth depends on residues of growing numbers. Then 1 agent-day of formal work per table, and 3 h per delta.
W7-2 175, 489 Skelet 1-like Class 1 A doubling digit counter with 4-cell phase words. Use an Sk1CounterMixed-style proof (Variables, not Hypotheses), parametric in the high digits. 0.25 Stage 1 (2 h): stop if a transfer map halves a field or the parity-flagged rule's endpoint has no finite case table.
W7-4 82, 464 (722 last) Skelet 1-like Class 1 A list of budget fields on 3-cell words with phase-marked separators, fed by a right-end counter, our #30/#7 route. 464 is a delta with the far-end junk word as a parameter. 0.20 (planner 0.20, on a false premise; see Critic) As W7-1. Try 722 only after 82 closes.
W7-5 274, 514 Skelet 1-like Class 1 The same 3-cell vocabulary as W7-4, so it reuses that digit fitter. Expect one idea with two instantiations. 0.12 (planner 0.15) Follow-on: stage 1 only after W7-4's stage 1 says go. No Coq before W7-4's proof.md exists.
W7-6 33, 472, 690, 569 Translated Counter Settle the "counting phase" halt question with an exact model. If the halt is reachable, make a HALT kill by checked runner (C2-552/W5-5 route). 0.10 (planner 0.15) Stage 1 only (2 h). Nonhalting proof work only by a new decision, because the class is M-Abozaid's.

Dropped by the critic: W7-3 (18/297), now a Skelet reserve (see Critic).

Representative strings

The Skelet tables are more than 3 transitions from each other and from a K42 member (plan-data/dist.py). So they are separate mechanisms, not K42 relatives.

Why each pick

W7-1 (4 lines). All four starts have the same growing end, and they differ in the oldest far-end blocks.

W7-2 (2 lines). Both starts have the same growing end.

W7-4 (2-3 lines). - Critic check. 82 and 464 are a near-merge. At exactly 1e9 steps they share 001^58 1 10^2 001^998 01^2 0^3 100^148 10^3 001^3664 100^2365 1^3 and differ only at the two ends (plan-data/critic/endtapes-1e9.txt). - Critic check (plan-data/critic/trace-82-fields.txt). The far-left field ran down 53 → 1 and died at about 3.6e10 steps with no halt. The right-end field grows by a steady +8,810 per cycle (60581, 69390, 78200, 87009, 95819). - Critic correction. qsim flags every rule on 82 (230 of 230 at block 3). Our #30 shows 1 of 45 and W5-5 none. The separators between fields come in at least four phase variants (101 010 101 010 100, 011 101 010, 111 010 101 010, 110 101 010 101 001). The case table is bigger than "a binary counter on 3-cell words".

W7-5 (2 lines). - Critic check. The two starts are a mirrored near-merge at 1e9. They share 001^1811 100^11345 and 100^11345 … 001^1811, with spans of 73,697 and 73,705. - They are not a literal merge, so expect two instantiations of one idea. It uses W7-4's vocabulary, so it only makes sense after W7-4's stage 1.

W7-6 (4 lines, the hedge). - This is the one non-Skelet pick: a translated counter of about 100 cells that moves right and leaves 1^N behind (1^3952883 on 33 at 1e9). qsim does not accelerate it at any block size. - It is a taken-class exception: Translated Counter is SOTCv2.v, by M-Abozaid (09-30). The planner's reasons for the exception: - no proof file or claim names any of the 4; - the nearest upstream SOTC/BTC proof is at least 5 transitions away; - the lines have not changed since Dec 2025. - Critic note. The ledger already parked 33 once for exactly this reason (halting-hunt, 10-13; retry "an exact model with a margin to watch"). Stage 1 is that exact model. Nonhalting proof work in M-Abozaid's class needs a separate call. The sheet note on 33, "Has to halt in the counting phase", is why stage 1 settles halting first.

How every Skelet pick runs

  1. Stage 1, go/no-go (2 h, Python, no Coq). - Fit the field system with rulefit, then build an exact accelerated simulator. Reuse the K42 one in reports/k42/ (5^k batches, translated-cycle detector). - Validate it against tools/sim to at least 1e10 steps, then run it far. - Classify every structural event. Both parity cases of every field death count as separate events, because the qsim flags say the parity picks the branch. The events are:
    • an interior field reaching 0 (W7-1: the re-pairing, seen twice so far);
    • a carry or transfer (W7-2: confirm every map is x → 2x + c);
    • a pair or field being born at the growing end;
    • a far-end death. Build these by hand where the natural run is too short: W7-1's far end dies only beyond about 1e12 steps.
    • Go if every event rule is affine in the fields, with at most a finite case table after a finite transient, and the halting transition is provably unreachable.
    • HALT route if the simulator reaches the halt: a checked-runner kill, as for C2-552 and W5-5.
    • Stop with the cryptid protocol if events branch on residues of growing numbers, or if the far end behaves like K42's glued escapes. Write the rules, flag the table, and stop.
  2. Stage 2 (2 h). Write proof.md for the representative start, starting from the nearest kill (#3 for W7-1, Sk1CounterMixed for W7-2, #30/#7 for W7-4). Use Variables, not Hypotheses, because check_kill bans the keyword (Sk1CounterMixed itself uses Hypothesis wall/one).
  3. Stage 3 (formal work, at most 1 agent-day per table). Stop if the core lemma fails coqc twice on the same structural issue.
  4. Deltas (3 h each). Same table, other start: keep the parent rules and prove a new base segment, as in #24. Stop a delta that needs new rules.

Class kill switch. If two of W7-1, W7-2 and W7-4 stop at stage 1 on the cryptid stop, the third and W7-5 stop after stage 1, and we write one class note.

Expected kills

Pick Odds (critic) Lines if it works Expected lines
W7-1 0.25 3-4 about 0.85
W7-2 0.25 2 0.5
W7-4 0.20 2 (+722) about 0.4
W7-5 0.12 1-2 about 0.2
W7-6 0.10 2-4 about 0.3
Total about 2.3 lines

The three main picks share one class and fail together more often than not. So the likely outcomes are either no kill (about 50%) or one or two tables' worth, 2 to 6 lines. We will know which by about hour 3, from stage 1 of W7-1, W7-2 and W7-4.

go = true. Three picks have a concrete route with honest odds of 0.2 or more (W7-1, W7-2, W7-4). W7-4 is on the line.

Coordination and resources

Rejected, with reasons

Lines Lens score Why not in Wave 7
18/297 (was W7-3) n/a Dropped by the critic. The method rested on "the same family as Sk1Machines.v TM17 (W = 1111011111)". But TM17's W is the 9-cell 101111111, and its proof ends in a glider (translated cycle) that is reached after a finite run. 18 shows no sign of either. At 1e9, 275 skeletons cover 300 records, with at least 6 distinct words (1100110110, 1111001111, 0011111111, 1111111100, 001111, 0110110011). qsim proves 0 rules even at block 10 (25 s, 2e11 steps). It is now a Skelet reserve.
170/278/374/434, 229/504/521/524, 740, 257/535/669 (CB1 F1-exit core) 0.55 Cryptid signature: the CB1 x3/2 Hydra map, with halting siblings in ChaoticBell1Halt.v. Its route needs a closure explorer, and the CB3 one has not closed yet (stage 1 hit its 40-word stop). Astra's exhaustive one-edge repair of the 6 sibling DFAs failed on 257/535/669. Follow-on for the CB3 lane.
303/545/662, 730 (CB1 F0-exit core) 0.50 Same as above; the sibling recipes are false or time out. CB3-lane follow-on.
338/577 0.10 CB1, same as above. The halting side was searched in direction 3 (no halt).
56/592 0.45 Cryptid flags: the halving rule B1(2n+2, 2n) → B2(2n+6, n) and a parity halt branch. The sibling CPS recipe is false in 0.01 s, so the abstraction is too coarse.
681/309/539 0.35-0.40 The layer law k' = 5k − 14 is exact, but the units per layer depend on start and history, and there are 6-16 Collatz-type qsim rules. Today's cryptid check was inconclusive, and the NG/RWL sibling recipes were false. CB3-lane follow-on.
26/720, 122/554 0.25 1-2 transitions from the 358 cryptid family (parked 10-10).
267; 623; 139; 292/595 0.08-0.25 Single tables whose only route is a larger decider seeded from a sibling. The x1 and x10 recipes are false. That is direction 5 or Astra's solver, not a wave pick.
28/130/222/261 0.12-0.15 Skelet 1-like Class 1, but in the K42 situation: the holdout is the one exit that keeps the counter alive, and every proven variant runs in another regime.
62/114, 89/204, 476/666; 203/453; 81/451/734; 293/724 0.10-0.18 Skelet reserves. Take them after a W7 Skelet pick closes, reusing its digit framework.
165/711 0.06 The same table halts from another start (RWLAccHaltv7.v), so it sits on a halting boundary. 165 was negative in the generator probe.
16/350/517, 39/526 0.05-0.12 CB3 tarpit verdict (erratic epochs). They follow the CB3 core.
142/446/461, 314/456 0.08-0.10 Monotone list is a taken class (Loop4Mono_v2..v6), with 150-165 frozen literal blocks. The RWL_mod recipe is false.
458/635, 51/74/154, 716/37, 192, 268 0.03-0.08 HALT-only probes on cryptid-flagged maps (x7/5 or x3/2 with residue splits, halving rules). Excluded by the cryptid rule.
159/218/230, 164/176, 196/676/687, 264/471/506, 225/624 0.03-0.06 Ack-like or CB1 Hydra shapes, or Ackermann-like nested histories. No route.
157/354, 344/426/600/706, 406/509, 59/475, 277/579, 151/367 0.03-0.20 On Astra's block-solver screen. Offer them to Astra, not ours.
370 0.12 Trajectory twin of W6-1's line 10. It waits for W6-1 to close.
725 0.06 A decider certificate carried to another start (Astra's lane; 0 for 3 so far). Offered to Astra.
543, 331, 319, 110, 126, 236, 527/467, 663/53/307/398 0.015-0.07 One-off singles or lists of pseudo-random-looking values. directions.md says no more one-off waves.
705, 530 0.04-0.05 The changed transition fires millions of times, and 530 is in W4-5's STUCK obstruction class.
247/619, 315/325/522 n/a K42 family (parked cryptid, Dennis A).
388/392 n/a Trajectory twin of our STUCK 633.
257/535/669, 318/483 n/a Astra's table-level negatives.

is anyone working through the Skelet 1-like Class 1 holdouts outside the big 40-machine core (the TM1..TM105 list behind Sk1Machines.v)? I'm looking at a few multi-start tables there and would like to avoid duplicating someone's work

Evidence from the planning pass

Critic (2026-10-14)

Verdict: go, with three main picks instead of four. - W7-1 and W7-2 hold up. - W7-4 holds on new evidence, after its stated evidence turned out to be wrong. - W7-3 falls. - W7-5 and W7-6 stay as a follow-on and a hedge, below 0.2.

The wave is less likely to pay than the planner said: about 2.3 expected lines, not 3.

What was checked

Check How Result
Ledger, by line and by table (renaming, mirror, start) tools/attempts.py query on all 17 lines Only list-level sweeps (decider probes, equivalence scans, triage, halting-sim) plus the planner's 3 rows. 33/472/690/569 have halting-sim negatives (10-13) and one parked triage row for 33 (M-Abozaid class; retry "an exact model with a margin"). No table was ever worked on.
Claims (Claude and Astra) coord/claims.tsv, latest line per tm/class None of the 17 strings and no class claim covers them. Astra's live claims are 147/493/169/109/141/551/389/544/572.
Astra's files and mailbox grep of all 17 strings in astra/ and coord/ Only inventory and screen files, where all are listed as excluded (mined or taken class). Astra's 18:45 and 19:21 messages cover 147/493/169 only.
Sheet, Discord, PRs, dyuan01 census_machines.tsv (owner, pr, tags), scout-dynamics sheet columns, data/discord No owner, no PR, no dyuan24/ubrrba/mira tag, no sheet "Done By". Only sheet note: 33 "Has to halt in the counting phase".
Class owner upstream Sk1Machines.v at cdaf693, reports/discord-drafts.md The author is ccz181078 = mxdys. The file covers TM17 (nonhalting) and TM91/94/104/105 (halting) of a numbered TM1..TM105 Class 1 list. This is a real scoop risk for all four Skelet picks, so the #bb6 message moves to "recommended".
W7-1 signal on 75 compress track to 1e9 (critic/compress-75-1e9.txt); qsim block 2, 30 s and 20 s (critic/qsim-flags.txt, critic/trace-75-pairs.txt) Pair list confirmed, with fields used up at rates that roughly double toward the head. qsim: 951 of 951 rules parity-flagged (Wave 6's grid had 288 at block 2 and 1,946 at block 6). #3 and #11 show 0 rules. Two interior zero events are uniform re-pairings. The far-end fields shrink (01^31 → 01^23, 2e7 → 2.7e9).
W7-2 signal on 175 compress to 1e9; qsim block 8 recursive, 15 s, tape at every rule application 4 skeletons: (0100)^a +2/visit, (0001)^b −1/visit. Transfers are doublings (+c). The far-end digit list ran out and was refilled several times with no halt. No halving seen.
W7-3 signal on 18 compress to 1e9; qsim block 10, 25 s; TM17 in Sk1Machines.v 275 skeletons in 300 records, at least 6 words, 0 qsim rules. TM17's W is 101111111 (9 cells), not 1111011111. Dropped.
W7-4 signal on 82 compress to 1e9; qsim block 3, 30 s and 25 s (critic/trace-82-fields.txt); end tapes at 1e9 230 of 230 qsim rules parity-flagged, not "no Collatz rules". The 82/464 near-merge is confirmed. A far-left death passed with no halt (about 3.6e10). The right end grows a steady +8,810 per cycle. Separators come in at least 4 phase variants.
W7-5 signal end tapes at 1e9 A mirrored near-merge (shared 1811/11345). As described.
W7-6 signal end tapes at 1e9 33: 1^3952883 plus a messy ~100-cell counter. 472: 1^5408013 plus a ~60-cell counter. As described. qsim 0 rules (Wave 6 grid).
Wave 6 cryptid signatures scout-dynamics rf columns, my traces No rational exchange rates or rescaling maps in the live orbits I traced. One weak flag each: 265 has a rulefit halt boundary C0(2n,5,3) → halt on a start-up skeleton. That is a nearby halting configuration, not the orbit. 179 has a /449 fit at 2% coverage, which is spurious. Both are noted for stage 1.

Odds, re-derived

Changes made to the plan

Critic evidence: plan-data/critic/ (qsim-flags.txt, trace-75-pairs.txt, trace-175-rules.txt, trace-82-fields.txt, compress-*.txt, endtapes-1e9.txt). The ledger rows for the critic probes are in coord/attempts.tsv (appended 2026-10-14).