{
 "tm": "1RB0LF_1RC0LB_1RD1RB_1RE1RF_1LA---_0RC1LA",
 "bucket_reason": "Observe is done at MED confidence: the mechanism is exact, but the non-halting invariant is not closed, so proof work waits.",
 "question": "W4-5 (469) and its same-table sibling 599 have an exact macro model where halting needs one parity defect: fund one ~2 h stage to search for an inductive context invariant, or park both?",
 "options": [
  {
   "id": "inv_search",
   "label": "Fund one ~2 h invariant-search stage for 469 + 599",
   "consequence": "Build an abstract-interpretation closure over the validated macro model (abstract tokens P1/P2/P3+, Z1/Z3/Z5+, D, block classes; bigram or regular context language), plus a wider TM-level CTL sweep. Output: an inductive INV (then proof.md and formalization) or a precise obstruction, then park."
  },
  {
   "id": "park",
   "label": "Park 469 and 599 now",
   "consequence": "No compute. Both go to STUCK with the macro model, validators and INV census in scripts/. Resume if a chaotic-class invariant method appears."
  },
  {
   "id": "proof_now",
   "label": "Write proof.md now with a hand-made invariant",
   "consequence": "Open-ended: the simple side conditions already fail random closure (~2% of steps) and one strengthening fails on the real run at step 2,403,364, so a hand guess is likely to need several rounds."
  }
 ],
 "recommended": "inv_search",
 "rationale": [
  "Exact model (all E-events from blank, 12,000 random, step formulas): a search over it is cheap and checkable.",
  "Halting has one route (a C-pass meeting 0^2); parity already closes, only local context is open.",
  "One result covers 469 and 599; park if the closure finds no invariant."
 ],
 "evidence": [
  {
   "kind": "figure",
   "text": "Fig 2: sweeps at the block/pair interface (every step from an E-event at step 36,312).",
   "href": "img/cycle_36312.png"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fact",
   "text": "Macro model vs TM: 34,479,962/34,479,962 E-events to 1e9 (start A), 1,032,103/1,032,103 to 3e7 (start D = 599); random 6,000/6,000 INV-shaped + 6,000/6,000 wild.",
   "href": "scripts/macro.py"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fact",
   "text": "Parity census: closed blocks even, r and every zero run odd at all 1,722,791 E-events to 5e7.",
   "href": "scripts/ctx.py"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fact",
   "text": "Not inductive yet: random closure from INV states leaves INV in ~2% of steps, all via r = 1 (lone-1 creation).",
   "href": "scripts/inv.py"
  }
 ],
 "effort_if_yes": "~2 h agent time, 1-2 light Python processes (the macro model runs ~1e6 TM-steps/s).",
 "updated": "2026-10-11",
 "answer": {
  "option": "inv_search",
  "note": "Dennis: go with recommendations (2026-10-11)",
  "date": "2026-10-11"
 }
}