{
  "tm": "1RB0LE_1RC---_0RD0RB_1RE0LA_1RF0LF_1LD1RF",
  "bucket_reason": "The planning stage ended; its independent check corrected the estimate and found a false draft lemma (rocq/plan-check.md).",
  "question": "W6-1's exit is proved in Rocq, but the full proof is about 14 x 2 h and one planned lemma needs restating: fund a 1-stage spike first, the full formalization, or park?",
  "options": [
    {
      "id": "spike",
      "label": "Fund a 1-stage spike (2-3 h)",
      "consequence": "Restate the round lemma (it is false as drafted; the fix is two extra hypotheses), design an invariant that survives SOBCv10's column step, and prove the opening's least-checked closed form (family (b)). Then ask again with a firmer estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "formalize",
      "label": "Fund the full formalization (about 14 x 2 h, range 12-18)",
      "consequence": "About 1,400-2,100 hard Rocq lines on top of SOBCv10's 4,234, more than any kill so far. Re-ask after the deficit decode (T3) and after the opening families."
    },
    {
      "id": "park",
      "label": "Park W6-1",
      "consequence": "Costs nothing. The proved exit (W61Exit.v, no Admitted), the stated plan and both reviews stay in rocq/."
    }
  ],
  "recommended": "spike",
  "rationale": [
    "The exit (overflow into the 919-step cycler) compiles with no Admitted and only the allowed funext.",
    "The independent check proved the drafted round lemma false (fixable: k <= 3, last column length >= 3) and the invariant not inductive as drafted.",
    "Its estimate is about 14 stages, not 10; a spike settles the two riskiest pieces first."
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "kind": "fact",
      "text": "Planning stage: what compiles and the stage plan",
      "href": "rocq/plan.md"
    },
    {
      "kind": "fact",
      "text": "Independent check: counterexamples to the draft lemma, revised estimate",
      "href": "rocq/plan-check.md"
    }
  ],
  "effort_if_yes": "spike: one 2-3 h stage; formalize: about 14 x 2 h (range 12-18)",
  "updated": "2026-10-14",
  "answer": {
    "option": "spike",
    "note": "",
    "date": "2026-10-16"
  }
}