{
  "tm": "1RB0LA_1RC---_0LD1RD_0RA0RE_0RF1RC_1LF0LA",
  "bucket_reason": "W7-6 stage 1 ended by its stop rule (cryptid-like halting condition); any stage 2 needs a new decision.",
  "question": "Park line 33 as a cryptid-like translated counter, or fund one 2 h stage to build the exact phase model and decide the transition at ~4.6e15 steps?",
  "options": [
    {
      "id": "park",
      "label": "Park as cryptid candidate",
      "consequence": "Keep rules R1-R4, scripts and figures; no more work on 33/472/569/690 unless the class owner publishes a method."
    },
    {
      "id": "model",
      "label": "Fund 2 h exact phase model",
      "consequence": "Build counter closed form + run-length transitions, validate to 2.2e7, run through the 23-pair overflow (~4.6e15). A halt there opens the checked-runner HALT route; survival gives the next phase parameters."
    }
  ],
  "recommended": "park",
  "rationale": [
    "Counting is exact and safe; halts need an exact value/gap coincidence at overflow/collision events.",
    "The orbit survived every event to 2.1e7; the next event is ~4.6e15 steps out and hinges on irregular digits.",
    "Even a halt there needs a W5-5-style formal increment lemma and runner: kill odds about 0.05."
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "kind": "figure",
      "text": "Phases to 2.2e7: count, erase, rebuild",
      "href": "img/phases-2.2e7.png"
    },
    {
      "kind": "figure",
      "text": "A synthetic collision that halts",
      "href": "img/collision-halt.png"
    },
    {
      "kind": "fact",
      "text": "R1: each C right record = +1 on the base-4 pair counter, 10,416/10,416 random transitions.",
      "href": "scripts/validate_increment.py"
    },
    {
      "kind": "fact",
      "text": "Current counter: 23 pairs, V = 61,170,343,443,693 at step 100,000,903; ~9.2e12 increments (~4.6e15 steps) to overflow.",
      "href": "notes.md"
    }
  ],
  "effort_if_yes": "One 2 h stage (Python/C, no Coq). A HALT result would need a further formal stage.",
  "updated": "2026-10-14",
  "answer": {
    "option": "park",
    "note": "",
    "date": "2026-10-16"
  }
}